NOAA Central Pacific Prediction: Above-Normal 2019 Hurricane Season

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NOAA Central Pacific (Hawaii) Prediction: Above-Normal 2019 Hurricane Season. How Much Is Hawaii At Risk?

2019 Central Pacific Hurricane Season: NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center announced there is a 70% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity during the central Pacific hurricane season this year.

Click the map below for the latest NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Information


What Does This Mean For Hawaii? This outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity in the central Pacific basin and does not predict whether any of these systems will affect Hawaii. The hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.

If You Are A Betting Person: The 2019 outlook also predicts a 20% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

Hawaii Hurricane Season Prediction – 5 to 8 (Sounds Like What A Judge Once Said To Me): For the season as a whole, 5 to 8 tropical cyclones are predicted for the central Pacific hurricane basin. This number includes tropical depressions, named storms and hurricanes. A near-normal season has four to five tropical cyclones, and an above-normal season has six or more tropical cyclones.

Why This Hawaii Hurricane Season Prediction: “This outlook reflects the forecast for El Nino to likely continue through the hurricane season. Also, ocean temperatures in the main hurricane formation region are expected to remain above-average, and vertical wind shear is predicted to be weaker-than-average,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, which collaborated on this outlook. Bell added, “All of these conditions point to an above-normal season.”

In (Almost) Hot Water? Hurricanes need sea surface temperatures at 82 degrees Fahrenheit (F) or warmer for tropical cyclone formation and sustenance.

El Nino decreases the vertical wind shear over the tropical central Pacific, which favors more and stronger tropical cyclones. El Nino also favors more westward-moving storms from the eastern Pacific into the central Pacific.

Hawaii Hurricane & Storm Related Preparedness Tips

Kona And The Pillars Of Pele? Record Rain in Hilo Why No Rain in Kona? The Kona Rain Shadow Effect. Three Pele-grown mountains protect Kona when weather originates from the east (and sometimes to the south): Mauna Kea at 13,803 feet, Mauna Loa at 13,679 feet and Hualalai at 8,271 feet.

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Hurricane Preparedness Tips:  “As we prepare for another active hurricane season in the central Pacific, we urge everyone to have an emergency plan now, so that you are ready for the devastating impacts that a tropical cyclone could bring to the State of Hawaii,” said Chris Brenchley, director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center. “It is essential that you know where and how to get official information, even in the event of a power failure, and that you have your emergency supply kit ready well before any storms threaten.” 

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